This week will clear up a lot of ambiguity.
The first two weeks of 2010, if you think about it, have been rather confusing. The first week of the year was dominated by three names -- Clijsters, Henin, and Wickmayer. Not one of those names made any headlines from, say, June 2008 to June 2009.
The second week was dominated by the old guard -- names like Dementieva and Serena Williams that we've been hearing about all the time lately.
Now we finally get to see everyone on one stage. And we'll certainly have lots of interesting questions to face. Is Henin for real? For that matter, is Clijsters for real? Has Dinara Safina truly recovered from her injury? Can Caroline Wozniacki keep up her form now that everyone expects so much from her? Can Jelena Jankovic come back to life? Will Venus Williams ever play up to her abilities in Australia? Is Vera Zvonareva healthy? How many more chances will Elena Dementieva have to finally break through? How bad is the knee injury Serena Williams suffered at Sydney? We could easily go on.
The first thing some American news outlets noted was that Venus and Serena Williams are in the same half (although not the same quarter, which was perfectly possible). But that's just habit. The big story, from where we sat, was where Justine Henin sat, and just what sort of draw Dinara Safina would have -- since Safina, at #2, is the player most in danger of taking a fall.
The answer for Safina is mixed:: Her early rounds don't look too bad, but she could face Maria Sharapova in the fourth round. Then would come Jelena Jankovic. Then either Svetlana Kuznetsova, who would be looking to pass her, or Elena Dementieva.
That's if Dementieva makes it past Justine Henin, whom she would face in the second round.
Serena is of course the top seed. Safina is #2. Kuznetsova is #3 and, as mentioned, in Safina's half. Caroline Wozniacki -- who hasn't won a WTA match this year -- is #4 and in Serena's half. #5 Dementieva is in Kuznetsova's quarter. #6 Venus is in Wozniacki's quarter. #7 Victoria Azarenka is Serena's potential quarterfinal opponent. And #8 Jankovic is in Safina's quarter.
The first seed Serena would face is #32 Carla Suarez Navarro -- meaning that one of them is guaranteed to take a hit, since Suarez Navarro made the quarterfinal last year and Serena was the champion. After that comes either #13 Samantha Stosur or #22 Sabine Lisicki. It's hard to imagine any of the unseeded players in that eighth of the draw doing much damage.
#2 seed Safina ought to be good through at least two rounds. Then she would face #30 seed Kateryna Bondarenko. Then it gets fun, since her third round match would, as mentioned, be against #14 Maria Sharapova (who, interestingly, faces her friend Maria Kirilenko in the first round) or #23 Dominika Cibulkova.
#3 seed Kuznetsova has a chance to move up to #2, but she'll have to earn it. She could face Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, one of the top unseeded players, in the second round. Then #26 Aravane Rezai, who is playing very well, in the third. Or maybe Sania Mirza, who opens against Rezai. Then comes #15 Kim Clijsters (or #19 Nadia Petrova). Clijsters frankly seems a better bet to reach the Round of Sixteen than Kuznetsova; other than Petrova, there are few tough challengers in her part of the draw.
#4 Caroline Wozniacki is going to face pressure from the very start. She opens against Aleksandra Wozniak, who just barely missed seeding. The second round will probably be easier (her opponent might be Tamira Paszek, who has talent -- but who is erratic, injury-prone, and seemingly not very bright). In the third, she is likely to face Shahar Peer, who is playing better than her ranking. Then would come either #16 Li Na or #22 Daniela Hantuchova, or maybe Agnes Szavay. Li isn't having a very good year, but she is definitely a giant-killer.
In addition to facing Henin in the second round, #5 Elena Dementieva has to start by facing Vera Dushevina. In the third round, she might take on countrywoman and #27 seed Alisa Kleybanova -- if Kleybanova makes it past Jelena Dokic in the first round and Sorana Cirstea in the second. It might almost be a relief for the survivor of all that to reach the fourth round, when she would face #12 Flavia Pennetta (assuming Pennetta makes it past Anna Chakvetadze in the first round and Yanina Wickmayer in the second -- Wickmayer qualified, making her of course the top unseeded player by a large factor; after Henin, she is surely the most dangerous floater) or #18 Virginie Razzano (who might face Sara Errani in the second). Dementieva and Henin are clearly the best in the section, but it's a horrid gantlet to run.
#6 Venus has potentially the toughest Round of Sixteen of any of the top seeds, since she is supposed to face #10 Agnieszka Radwanska, or possibly #17 Francesca Schiavone. Or Melanie Oudin (Radwanska's potential second round opponent). Or even Alicia Molik or Julie Coin (who face off for the right to face Schiavone in the second round). That's if Venus gets there. She probably will, but her path runs through Lucie Safarova, Sybille Bammer, and #25 seed Anabel Medina Garrigues (or, just possible, Karolina Sprem, who faces Medina Garrigues in round one).
#7 Azarenka could face Melinda Czink in round two, then #28 Elena Vesnina or maybe, on current form, Kimiko Date Krumm. In the fourth round, she's supposed to face either #9 Vera Zvonareva or #20 Ana Ivanovic. And yet, Zvonareva is hobbling again, and Ivanovic shows little evidence of shedding her funk. And Zvonareva has several young talents in her section: She opens against Kristina Kuzova, then either Chang Kai-Chen or veteran Iveta Benesova. Ivanovic is likely to face Gisela Dulko in round two. Azarenka is the clear candidate to come through that section and face Serena, but if she stumbles, it's almost impossible to guess who might take her spot.
#8 Jelena Jankovic started the year badly, but her draw might help out. She isn't likely to be challenged until she faces #31 Alona Bondarenko in the third round. In the fourth, she might face #11 Marion Bartoli or #24 Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (or Zheng Jie or Peng Shuai, who face each other in the first round for the right to face Martinez Sanchez in the second).
It's rather odd to look over this field and see where the past champions and finalists are seeded -- it's often surprisingly low. Serena, the winner in 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009, is of course #1, but 2008 winner Maria Sharapova is #14. 2006 champion Mauresmo is retired. 2004 winner Henin is unseeded. And there are no other past champions in the field: 1997-1999 winner Hingis, 2000 winner Davenport, and 2001-2002 champion Capriati are all out of the game.
Recent finalists are actually more common (and often seeded higher) than recent champions. Safina, last year's runner-up, is #2. 2008 finalist Ivanovic is #20. Sharapova was the 2007 finalist, Henin the runner-up in 2006, Davenport came in second in 2005, Clijsters was the finalist in 2004, Venus had her one final appearance in 2003, and 2000-2002 finalist Hingis, and all the finalists before her, are gone; Mauresmo was the last.
The Rankings
This week could be interesting.
The temperature in Melbourne could also be cooler than it is here at our Minnesota offices. It could be -- but it's sure not the way to bet.
Put it this way: Serena Williams could lose the #1 spot. But it's going to take a lot of unusual circumstances.
Serena comes in with a lead of somewhat more than 1500 points on Dinara Safina, rather more than 2000 points on Svetlana Kuznetsova, and substantially more than 2000 points on Caroline Wozniacki. To be sure, Serena is defending 2000 points -- but Safina is defending 1400, and Kuznetsova is defending 500. Wozniacki has the least on the line -- she lost in the third round, meaning she has 160 points coming off. Our calculations show that the Top Fifteen in safe points is as follows:
1..(1) SWILLIAMS ......... 7200
2..(2) SAFINA .............6205
3..(4) WOZNIACKI ......... 5720
4..(3) KUZNETSOVA .........5586
5..(6) VWILLIAMS ......... 5031
6..(5) DEMENTIEVA .........4610
7..(7) AZARENKA ...........4465
8..(8) JANKOVIC ...........3690
9.(10) ARADWANSKA .........3450
10.(12) PENNETTA ...........3065
11.(13) STOSUR .............2890
12.(11) BARTOLI ........... 2830
13.(14) SHARAPOVA ......... 2825
14..(9) ZVONAREVA ......... 2665
15.(15) CLIJSTERS ......... 2625
What that means is that Safina can pass Serena with a final if Serena loses in the first three rounds, or could take the #1 spot with a title if Serena loses in the semifinal or earlier. Wozniacki can become #1 if she wins the title and Serena loses by the quarterfinal. And Kuznetsova can become #1 if she wins the title and Serena loses in the fourth round or earlier.
Safina, we note, is #2 in safe points, but playing rather badly. Wozniacki could pass her with a quarterfinal if Safina loses her opener, or with a semifinal if Safina loses in the first three rounds, or with a final if Safina is not the player on the other side of the net. Kuznetsova needs at least a semifinal to pass Safina, and that's only if Safina loses in the first three rounds. Still, we'd call it a more than usually open contest for #2.
Serena and Safina are guaranteed to turn Top Five, and Wozniacki and Kuznetsova also look pretty close to clinched. But that leaves one spot. Elena Dementieva had it coming in, but she is defending more than #6 Venus Williams, meaning that she needs to at least repeat her semifinal to stay at #5. Victoria Azarenka, who is only 150 points behind Dementieva, also has a shot at #5 if she can make the semifinal. Several others have outside shots at #5, but they would all need a title.
Note on the above list that Vera Zvonareva is out of the Top Ten in safe points -- .in fact, she's barely clinging to the Top Fifteen. And hurt. That obviously leaves one Top Ten spot wide open. There might even be more. Serena, Safina, Wozniacki, Kuznetsova, Venus, Dementieva, and Azarenka are safe in the Top Ten. Jankovic and Agnieszka Radwanska are very probable but not quite clinched. But the real competition will be for the #10 spot. Only 460 points separate Pennetta, #10 in safe points, from Li, #17. That's less than the value of a quarterfinal, and a lot less than the value of a semifinal. Clijsters and Sharapova, in particular, are obvious candidates for the semifinal. So we could have a wild scramble for the #10 spot.
It's interesting to note that, although last year's winner and finalist are ranked #1 and #2 in the world, several of the other six players to reach the quarterfinal are ranked a lot lower. Last year's semifinalists were Vera Zvonareva and Elena Dementieva. The quarterfinalists were, other than Kuznetsova, an unlikely list: Jelena Dokic (ranked #187 at the time, and in the main draw as a wildcard), Marion Bartoli, and Carla Suarez Navarro (then #46). Players who made the Round of Sixteen included Jelena Jankovic, Nadia Petrova, Alize Cornet, Alisa Kleybanova, Anabel Medina Garrigues, Dominika Cibulkova, Zheng Jie, and Victoria Azarenka.
Of that list, we'd have to say that Dokic, Suarez Navarro, and Cornet are in the most trouble. Cornet, currently around #50, would probably end up between #60 and #65 if she lost early. Suarez Navarro, #33, would probably end up around #55. And Dokic, who is below #55, could see about 40% of her points evaporate, which would leave her in the vicinity of #100.
Bob Larson - Publisher
Cort Larson - Editor
Robert Waltz - Contributor
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